Michigan basketball is rolling, now sitting at 9-0 as one of three Power Five undefeated programs and the only undefeated team in the Big Ten — widely seen as the nation’s best conference.
It’s been a while since we updated the ESPN BPI predictions for the season, with the last update coming on Dec. 15, 2020. While not a ton has changed, ESPN’s advanced analytics predictors have put a few games in the win column that weren’t previously, and have given the Wolverines better chances to win in all but one game this season compared to before.
According to BPI, Michigan basketball will finish the season 21-3-1 after having a record start to the season, going 19-0 before suffering its first loss. Naturally, a tie can’t happen, but that one that’s now a toss-up was seen previously as a loss. And the four-game losing streak to end the season? It’s now looking to be more in the Wolverines’ favor at 1-2-1.
Here’s how ESPN’s BPI predicts Michigan basketball’s season to transpire after the torrid start.
Jan. 6 - Minnesota (home)
Bold prediction: After averaging just about 20 minutes a game in the first half, Wiseman will play at least five more minutes per game and average at least 15 points a game in the second half, up. The most probable scenario is that the 1X2 would be transformed to something like 2,00-2,30-8,50 and the over 2,5 goals odds would be rising to over 2,80. Having witnessed the home team domination during the first 45 minutes, a second half bet to the home team. We are usually updating 'first half predictions and tips' on a daily basis. Half Time Picks. Friday. 12 May 2017. HALF TIME PICKS To return: 0 USD Odds: 6.23 Stake: 100 USD Starting in Teams Half Time Our Pick Odds CSKA Moscow – Arsenal Tula Soccer: Russia – Premier League HALF TIME 1 1.45 Zaglebie – Piast Gliwice Soccer: Poland. European style football are played in two halves. Here we predict the outcome of first half of the match. Half-time (halftime) is the interval between two halves of the match. Around 50 percents of football games ends with draw. Odds for half-time 0:0 is offen around 2.00-2.50. Estimation for half-times are used in HT/FT predictions.
Photo: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports
Prediction: Michigan – 72% win probability (up from 69.9%)
Jan. 9 - Penn State (away)
Dec 13, 2020; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Michigan Wolverines guard Eli Brooks (55) goes to the basket as guard Sam Sessoms (3) defends during the first half at Crisler Center. Mandatory Credit: Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports
Prediction: Michigan – 59.1% win probability (up from 51.3%)
Jan. 12 - Wisconsin (home)
Dec 28, 2020; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Maryland Terrapins forward Donta Scott (24) dunks the ball as Wisconsin Badgers forward Nate Reuvers (35) defends during the second half at the Kohl Center. Photo: Mary Langenfeld-USA TODAY Sports
Prediction: Michigan – 52.8% win probability (same as before)
Jan. 16 - Minnesota (away)
Photo: Isaiah Hole
Prediction: Michigan – 54.6% win probability (up from 49%)
Jan. 19 - Maryland (home)
Dec 9, 2020; Clemson, South Carolina, USA; Maryland Head Coach Mark Turgeon claps watching his team play Clemson during the first half of the ACC/BIG10 Challenge game at Littlejohn Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Ken Ruinard-USA TODAY Sports
Prediction: Michigan – 74.8% win probability (up from 71.8%)
Jan. 22 - Purdue (away)
Matt Painter
Prediction: Michigan – 57.5% win probability (up from 51.9%)
Jan. 30 - Indiana (home)
Photo: Isaiah Hole
Prediction: Michigan – 66% win probability (up from 57.1%)
Feb. 3 - Northwestern (away)
Jan 3, 2021; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Michigan Wolverines guard Chaundee Brown (15) drives to the basket as Northwestern Wildcats forward Miller Kopp (10) defends during the first half at Crisler Center. Photo: Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports
Prediction: Michigan – 61.5% win probability (down from 61.8%)
Feb. 6 - Michigan State (home)
Photo: Isaiah Hole
Prediction: Michigan – 66.6% win probability (up from 54.8%)
Feb. 11 - Illinois (home)
Prediction: Michigan – 51.8% win probability (down from 53.4%)
Feb. 14 - Wisconsin (away)
Photo: Isaiah Hole
Prediction: Wisconsin – 63.6% win probability (down from 63.5%)
Feb. 18 - Rutgers (home)
Feb 19, 2020; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights guard Jacob Young (42) defends against Michigan Wolverines guard Eli Brooks (55) during the second half at Rutgers Athletic Center (RAC). Mandatory Credit: Noah K. Murray-USA TODAY Sports
Prediction: Michigan – 71.1% win probability (up from 65.4%)
Feb. 20 - Ohio State (away)
Michigan guard Zavier Simpson (3) drives on Ohio State forward Kyle Young (25) in the second half of an NCAA college basketball game in Ann Arbor, Mich., Tuesday, Feb. 4, 2020. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)
Prediction: Ohio State – 54% win probability (down from 56.9%)
Feb. 27 - Indiana (away)
Photo: Isaiah Hole
Prediction: Draw at 50% – (up from 59% Indiana win probability)
Mar. 4 - Iowa (home)
Photo: Isaiah Hole
Prediction: Iowa – 51.8% win probability (Michigan chances up from Iowa at 61.7%)
Mar. 7 - Michigan State (away)
Prediction: Michigan – 52.8% win probability (up from MSU at 65.3%)
Each of the past three games for Michigan basketball was the Wolverines’ biggest test yet. And each, climbing in difficulty, the maize and blue passed with increasingly flying colors.
First, it was playing against ranked Northwestern, which Michigan won by 19 points. Then ranked Minnesota, which Michigan beat by 25. The biggest came on Tuesday night with top 10 Wisconsin coming to Ann Arbor. Though Michigan won by 22, it had a 40-point lead midway through the second half, winning in the most dominant fashion we’ve seen all season.
As a result, the updated ESPN BPI advanced analytics-driven game-by-game predictions have become more in Michigan’s favor, with what initially looked to be six sure-fire Big Ten losses dwindling down to two. After Tuesday’s game, Michigan’s chances increased in every game except for one.
Still, ESPN predicts that Michigan will finish 23-2, with one road loss and one home loss. All rivalry games are now predicted to be in the Wolverines’ favor.
Here are the updated game-by-game predictions.
Jan. 16 - Minnesota (away)
Jan 6, 2021; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Michigan Wolverines guard Mike Smith (12) loses the ball while defended by Minnesota Golden Gophers center Liam Robbins (0) in the first half at Crisler Center. Photo: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
Prediction: Michigan – 65.8% win probability (up from 54.6%)
Jan. 19 - Maryland (home)
Michigan guard Eli Brooks (55) goes to the basket past Maryland guard Hakim Hart, right, during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game Thursday, Dec. 31, 2020, in College Park, Md. (AP Photo/Nick Wass)
Prediction: Michigan – 81.4% win probability (up from 74.8%)
Jan. 22 - Purdue (away)
Matt Painter
Prediction: Michigan – 65.6% win probability (up from 57.5%)
Jan. 30 - Indiana (home)
Photo: Isaiah Hole
Prediction: Michigan – 71.9% win probability (up from 66%)
Second Half Win Predictions
Feb. 3 - Northwestern (away)
Jan 3, 2021; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Northwestern Wildcats forward Miller Kopp (10) drives to the basket as Michigan Wolverines forward Isaiah Livers (2) defends during the second half at Crisler Center. Photo: Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports
Prediction: Michigan – 72% win probability (up from 61.5%)
Feb. 6 - Michigan State (home)
Photo: Isaiah Hole
Prediction: Michigan – 75.3% win probability (up from 66.6%)
Feb. 11 - Illinois (home)
Prediction: Michigan – 62.2% win probability (up from 51.8%)
Feb. 14 - Wisconsin (away)
Michigan guard Franz Wagner (21) makes a layup as Wisconsin forward Micah Potter (11) defends during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game Tuesday, Jan. 12, 2021, in Ann Arbor, Mich. (AP Photo/Carlos Osorio)
Prediction: Wisconsin – 53.2% loss probability (down from 63.6%)
Feb. 18 - Rutgers (home)
Feb 19, 2020; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights guard Jacob Young (42) defends against Michigan Wolverines guard Eli Brooks (55) during the second half at Rutgers Athletic Center (RAC). Photo: Noah K. Murray-USA TODAY Sports
Prediction: Michigan – 80.7% win probability (up from 71.1%)
Feb. 20 - Ohio State (away)
Jan 3, 2021; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes center Zed Key (23) and Minnesota Gophers forward Eric Curry (24) fight for the ball during the second half at Williams Arena. Photo: Harrison Barden-USA TODAY Sports
Prediction: Michigan – 53.6% win probability (up from Ohio State 54% win probability)
Feb. 27 - Indiana (away)
Photo: Isaiah Hole
Prediction: Michigan – 57.1% win probability (up from 50/50 draw)
Mar. 4 - Iowa (home)
Photo: Isaiah Hole
Win And Draw Predictions
Prediction: Iowa – 54% loss probability (up from 51.8% Iowa win probability)
Mar. 7 - Michigan State (away)
Photo: Isaiah Hole
Sure Win Predictions Today
Prediction: Michigan – 63.1% win probability (up from 52.8%)