The first and most important factor in your success or otherwise in gambling is to find an edge. Finding an edge in a particular sport or market is the ability to place bets that have a higher probability of happening than the odds you receive. In any sporting event the probability of something happening can never be known, but it can be predicted, which is what the bookies do when they price up an event. Your job is to bet in markets where you think you can predict the odds with a greater degree of accuracy than the market makers, be they the bookies, or a betting exchange. It’s not enough to be only slightly more accurate either as this in itself won’t guarantee your success, you need to be placing bets that have enough of a profit margin to beat either the bookies over round, or the commission you pay on the exchanges. You also need to be placing your bets at the best possible price. Getting the best price available can be the difference between winning and losing money gambling, and with the generous free bet offers most bookmakers have for new sign ups, there’s no excuse not to have accounts with all of them
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- How To Calculate Edge In Sports Betting Line
- How To Calculate Edge In Sports Betting Calculator
Home Field Advantage in Sport – The Betting Edge. Knowing exactly what edge a home team may have in a particular sport, either in general, or for individual teams, will give you a greater insight into that particular sport, and give you a greater feel than your run of the mill punter. Winning sports betting requires the ability to identify and exploit mispriced bets. In order to accomplish this, you must be able to correctly predict an outcome’s probability of happening so that you can compare that percentage of likelihood with the implied expectation. Sports betting research can go a long way when you're deciding on what bets to place. Whether it's statistical data or following tips, you'll have a good chance of winning more bets than you lose.
It would be nice to just fire up Betfair or Betdaq, read the spotlight comments in the Racing Post, and decide the favourite is a good bet and expect to make a profit, but think about it for a second. The prices you’re betting at are based on the opinions of professional odds compilers and punters who have done their research, what makes you think you can have a quick look at a race and predict more accurately the chances of a particular runner than they can?
To beat the market you need to either have more information, which could be the result of your own research, or find another reason why the current odds might be wrong. You could for instance know that your competitors are ignoring vital information for various reasons. For instance patriotism in sport can lead to the bookies and punters ignoring their team’s deficiencies. The bookies know about them, but they also know the majority of their customers will back them regardless, and thus offer a shorter price than they would if they priced it to 100% and adjusted for their profit margin. Everyone has the same information, but the majority of the market has chosen to ignore some of it.
An old but useful example would be England’s make or break game against Croatia to qualify for Euro 2008. Despite Croatia appearing to be at least England’s equal throughout the qualifying they could be backed at a ridiculously high 7/1 to win the match. Why was this? The main reason would be that a large portion of the punters using the exchanges were English, and they couldn’t entertain the possibility that their side would be knocked out, thus the price on Croatia winning was hugely inflated over and above what the evidence suggested it should be. Even at 2-0 up Croatia could be backed at 4/5 on Betfair to win the match. In effect people were backing England at 5/4 to win the match by two goals or more from there on. Incredible!
This was an extreme example to get my point across, but basically to find an edge you either need to know something not many others know, or use the information that everyone knows, better than they do. Information is only of value if it’s reasonably exclusive and thus the market hasn’t fully moved to take it into account. For instance say a trainer tips up his horse in the racing post, and it‘s odds before anyone has read the article was 6/1. The horse could conceivable end up around 3/1 and some will back it at that price because the trainer fancied it. The problem is the market has already accounted for that fact, and has more than likely overreacted to it. If however you knew the trainers opinion before everyone else did and took the 6/1, you likely have a good price.
A sire’s offspring might do particularly well on soft ground, but once this becomes public knowledge, the market will then factor this knowledge into the horse’s price. If you had done your own research you could have used this information to your advantage before it became widely known. Once everybody knows about it, the stat becomes almost worthless as an angle into a race, but still has to be accounted for when forming an opinion of a horse’s chance. Researching sire stats is in fact a very worthwhile project, as apart from a few big name sires whose progeny’s preferences are well known, there are many lesser known sires whose offspring have marked going preferences that aren’t known by the majority. Finding these can result in numerous profitable wagers.
If Messi and Neymar were expected to play for Barcelona in an important match, and you witnessed both get injured in a training ground clash the day before the match, you could take advantage by laying Barcelona in the match, but if you heard about the injuries on that evenings news, then it is of no use to you other than to inform you why Barcelona have drifted. Many punters will hear that piece of news well after it was released, and proceed to lay Barcelona because they’re missing two important players, but they’re forgetting that everyone else knows this as well, and the market has already more than accounted for it.
Producing your own form or speed ratings is another possible way to get ahead of the crowd. If your ratings were just as accurate overall, as say Timeform’s, then you would pinpoint many profitable bets, as yours aren’t used by anyone but yourself. Backing the top rated on Beyer Speed figures would have turned over a healthy profit when first created, but as soon as they became publicly available the prices of the top rated dropped markedly.
Sectional Times are another angle into a race as they’re still not widely used and have to be taking manually in the UK and Ireland. Having info most of the betting public don’t have, or don’t have the knowledge to use properly, is very valuable. I will look at Sectional Times in more depth in future articles as well as other more advanced ways to find that elusive edge.
If you take anything from this article let it be this. Information is only of use for gambling purposes if the market, for whatever reason hasn’t already accounted for it. You could have a system that has made money for each of the past 20 years, but if your girlfriend is Rihanna and she accidentally puts it on her Facebook page, it will quickly turn into a loss maker. Strike rate will be the same but the price won’t. Her making it up to you could still be +EV though!
Okay so you’ve found an edge, all you have to do now is sit back and let the profits roll, right? I wish it was that easy but while you need an edge to make money, having one doesn’t guarantee long term profits. There are many other factors that will ultimately decide your success or otherwise and I will go through them in future articles. Next up is Betting Discipline and don’t forget to check out the free bets page to take the easiest, and vitally important step to being a successful punter, by always getting the best price.
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You need an edge in the sports betting markets to make money.
Finding An Edge – Sports Betting And Betfair Trading
First off what is an edge in sports betting and trading?
An edge is the reason that you make money from sports betting.
A simple example of an edge that is well documented and used by many is matched betting and arbitrage. Matched betting involves using bookmaker promotions to make frequent profits. Arbitrage capitalizes on bookmakers being slow to move their odds allowing profit to be made on all outcomes.
However the trouble with these edges is that it isn’t easily scalable and it relies on soft bookmakers. Who eventually won’t want your business and limit you to pennies.
That leaves a lot of people searching for an edge that is sustainable over the long term. An edge that offers more scalability and the potential for larger profit.
But what processes can you use to find an edge?
Lets have look at some potential ways to find an edge in both sports betting and sports trading.
Past Data
One way of looking at finding an edge is to analyse past data. This may reveal profitable trends that potentially still exist in the current markets. Which then can lead to a profitable betting strategy.
Two big advocates of this type of analysis are Cassini. The man behind the sports betting blog green all over, who frequently puts up betting systems based on past profitable trends.
Jon Roberts the man behind the software Predictology. Is also a fan of using past data to look at building profitable betting strategies for the current betting markets.
Is there a downside to using past data?
Well just because something has happened in the past doesn’t guarantee it is going to happen in the future.
However it is certainly a good indicator to use and might highlight some area’s that could be exploitable.
Modelling
If you have an interest in sports betting. Then you will have probably come across a few mathematical models that people use to try and find value in the betting markets.
For those that are mathematically minded. Developing a sports betting model might be the answer to developing an edge.
It is thought that many of the largest betting syndicates in the world use mathematical modelling for sports betting.
Lets take a look at a few models which have been used to try and find value in sports betting.
Elo Ratings
The idea of Elo ratings is that each team has a rating. Stronger sides will be given a higher rating compared to weaker sides. For example Manchester United would be given a higher rating then Brighton.
Elo ratings are constantly changing, they are calculated based upon the results of matches. When two sides play, the winner of a match will gain a certain number of points in their rating. The losing team loses the same amount.
The number of points won or lost in a match will depend on the difference in the Elo ratings of the teams. By beating stronger teams a side will increase there points by more then by beating a weaker side.
Poisson Distribution
Poisson distribution is a mathematical concept. Used for translating mean averages into a probability for variable outcomes across a distribution.
This is used in football betting for example to calculate on average how likely a team are to score a certain number of goals.
Here are some good articles on Poisson distribution in betting.
Expected Goals
In football the expected goals model has risen in popularity lately. Being used quite often in post match analysis by television pundits.
Expected goals is a metric which assesses every chance, it is a way of assigning a value to every attempt at scoring a goal. Each attempt is given a value based based on the expectancy of how likely it is to be scored.
For example an effort from less than six yards out in front of goal was given a rating of 0.91xG. It was such a good chance it should be scored 91% of the time.
Using an expected goals model could indicate how “lucky” or “unlucky” a teams results have been. Which could indicate value on teams that may have been performing well on expected goals but not getting the results.
Live Pictures
They say a picture paints a thousand words. Often live pictures can tell you much more about a game then the in play stats.
We live in an age where there are free streams of football games all around the world. On a given day you can watch the Japanese league in the morning, the Romanian league in the afternoon and finish off with La Liga at night.
There are quite a few football traders for example that swear by trading only with live pictures.
Psychoff may be one of the best known football traders in the world. He has stated on his twitter account that he makes his goal alert trading decisions based on watching live games. Surprisingly also stating that he doesn’t use statistics for these trades.
With live pictures you can pick up on adjustments in tactics. In football games you can read the tempo and flow of a game. See the weather conditions, body language of players. Having live pictures can often give you a lot of extra information when deciding to make a bet.
Combined with knowledge of the sports and teams. Live pictures might be enough to give you a profitable edge in the markets.
Beating The Closing Odds
In sports betting. If you can consistently beat the closing odds at sharp bookmakers. Then its likely that you are consistently finding value.
Major sports betting markets are pretty efficient. There has been quite a few studies which have shown this using Pinnacle’s closing odds as an example.
Because they are so efficient if you are able to constantly beat the closing odds (after the inclusion of vig). Then you will most likely have found yourself a profitable betting system.
In fact the profitable sports betting tool Trademate is based on this very concept.
Trademate scans for odds across a high number of bookmakers. When it finds odds that are higher then those at the sharp bookmakers it advises a bet.
This is also known as value betting.
It is perhaps one of the simplest ways of finding value in the sports betting markets.
If you are looking for high turnover and a proven method of making money. Value betting is probably one of the easiest ways to do this.
The drawback to this style of betting is that it again relies on soft bookmakers.
Experiencing The Markets
This could probably be classed as using past data.
However specifically relating to Betfair trading I think it deserves its own section.
Experiencing the markets over and over can really help you see potential opportunities for profit.
I will use football as an example as this is the sport I trade the most.
A lot of my own pre match trading strategies were created by watching lots of market movements. Noting odds days in advance for games. Tracking what the odds were leading up to game day and eventually noting the closing odds.
If you do this you start to see patterns and understand what moves a market pre match.
Team news is always going to have a big effect on the market. But by watching markets I also learnt that performances mid week for teams playing in Europe will effect prices for games at the weekend.
If there is a question mark on whether a key player is likely to start, early odds movement can often be a good indication on how likely they are to play or not. As people with this information already will get their bets on before its public knowledge.
Caan Berry has also stated that he records all the horse racing markets he trades. So that he can experience these markets again and build better judgments for future markets. Allowing him to react quicker if future markets trade in a similar way to one he has already experienced.
In Depth Knowledge
As noted earlier in this article. The markets with the most amount of money traded are usually the most efficient.
However odds makers don’t put a huge amount of attention on some of the sports/events that don’t attract the big money.
For example the odds in the Portuguese second division are not going to be as efficient as the Champions league. So for a hardcore fan of the Portuguese second division, value might be easy to spot at first glance.
In lesser known sports/leagues an in depth knowledge may be enough to give you a profitable edge.
Contrarian Betting
Sports Betting How To Guide
The sport of mixed martial arts is still fairly young. Betting on the UFC is growing and odds makers are getting better at pricing up fights.
However if you have an in depth knowledge of the sport then there is great value to be found.
Given that you don’t see fighters week in week out. Along with the promotion of UFC being akin to pro wrestling with a narrative often being written. Occassionally you see some lop sided odds as the betting public often follow the narrative being portrayed.
The best example of this is when Ronda Rousey fought Amanda Nunes.
Rousey was coming back after a year layoff on the back of vicious head kick loss. In a fight where she showed serious flaws in her fighting style.
Nunes was the new champion who had shown to be well rounded and was running through top level competition. On top of that she had shown she was an elite level striker, striking was Rousey’s biggest weakness.
All the media and promotion of the fight was behind Rousey comeback and somehow Nunes was odds of 2.8 as the defending champion come fight night.
The odds were way out of line due to the media being behind only one fighter.
Whenever the media are heavily behind one team/athlete. It is always worth looking at it from a contrarian point of view.
Summary
So we have looked at multiple approaches in finding an edge in the sports betting markets.
Depending on your personality and your own skill set some maybe more viable then others
Often a combination of the methods above will be used to find value.
Finding a long term edge in the Betfair trading or sports betting isn’t easy. But for those that do find them the rewards can be huge.
Looking to make money from the sports betting markets.
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