Gamble, chance, stake, venture, hazard, speculate, punt (chiefly Brit.), wager, put money, risk money, pledge money, put your shirt I bet on a horse called Premonition. Imagine, expect, suspect, assume, guess (informal, chiefly U.S. & Canad.), fancy, deem, infer, deduce, conjecture I bet you were good at games when you were at school. An 'If Bet' is another type of wager that can be made on sports and helps with money management as well as reducing your exposure to big losses. While they can be compared to a parlay, they do not give the requirement that every bet must win in order to be successful, helping you in the short and long term. Verb bets, betting, bet, betted 1 no object Risk something, usually a sum of money, against someone else's on the basis of the outcome of a future event, such as the result of a race or game. With clause ‘I would be prepared to bet that what he really wanted was to settle down’. An if bet is a series of wagers where the action continues to the next bet only if a condition is met. These can be if win bets or if win/push.A similar wagering option called reverse bets function as if win, push, no action or cancel.To explain in simple terms here is an example of a 2-selection if win/pushwager: Chicago Bears -4 -110 Risk $220 to win $200. ‘Spread betting involves betting on the outcome of a financial or sporting event based on a ‘spread’ quoted by the bookmaker.’ ‘The problem is that it is a lot easier and faster to log on to a gambling web site or do off-site betting on track races than to go to an amusement park.’.
Value betting is an essential skill for bettors. What is a value bet? How can a bettor find value? Read on to find out.
One of the most interesting things about betting is that nobody knows the true probability of the outcome of an event (other than a coin toss). Bookmakers set odds based on their assumptions and the state of the market. A value bettor will attempt to capitalise on the probabilities implied by odds they believe to be incorrect.
What is a value bet?
In order to find value a bettor needs to determine their own probability of an event occurring. In simple terms, if a bettor is able to correctly identify events where the probability of the event occurring is higher than that implied by the bookmaker’s odds then they will win in the long run.
Bet offers value when:
probability of outcome > probability implied by odds
Example of a value bet
Let’s use the example of a fair coin toss. Ignoring the chance the coin lands on its side we know that the chance of a head is 50%. This implies fair odds of 2.00. Once the bookmaker adds their margin the odds could be (depending upon the bookmaker) around 1.91 implying a 52.4% chance of the toss resulting in heads.
We know that this bet offers poor value since we are receiving odds on a 50% likelihood as if there was a 52.4% chance of heads.
Now imagine there is some uncertainty as to the percentage chance of heads. We have calculated that the chance of heads is 50% but the market is uncertain. The bookmaker is now offering odds of 2.2 on heads.
This now offers the opportunity to take a bet with 50% odds as if the event had only a 45.5% chance of occurring. This is a value bet.
We can determine the profitability of a bet by using the expected value formula:
So with our coin toss example the expected value calculation from a €10 stake is:
For each €10 bet the expected return is €11 (a profit of €1).
For each coin flip we can expect to win €11 for every €10 staked. This would become very lucrative in the long run.
How to find value bets
A Bet Is A Bet Pay Up
A good way to find value bets is to look at differences in bookmaker odds. Where bookmakers disagree about the chance of an event occurring may be where value is present.
Building a superior model or taking advantage of information asymmetry can also be a good way to find value. If a model or inside information gives the bettor a clearer grasp of true probability than the bookmaker then profits are available.
The importance of the long run
When value betting it is important to bet for the long-term. Even with the clear edge on the coin toss at 2.2 odds there is still a 50% chance that the bettor loses. This is when a staking strategy becomes important as bankrolls can be decimated by over staking, even on bets that offer value.
In the long run this strategy pays off. After 100 coin flips staking €10 the bettor would expect to have €1100 from the €1000 wagered.
In a similar way, if a sports bettor can find enough value bets they will win in the long run.
The importance of odds
What Is Bet Slang For
Value is all about finding the best odds and no bookmaker offers better value than Pinnacle. If bettors take lower odds from elsewhere then a value betting strategy becomes less profitable or even loss-making.
Some bookmakers ban winners, making a long-term value betting strategy impossible. Pinnacle operate a winners welcome policy so value bettors can make the most from their edge.
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